record abstentions under the Vth Republic, push of the National Front, ex-Ministers in unfavorable tossing and a PS with the wind in its sails, the 1er round of the legislative ballot is rich in lessons and surprises at the national level. A brief overview.
Five weeks after having massively mobilized for the presidential election, voters did not have the same enthusiasm for these legislative elections. As proof, this record abstention rate, a little less than 43%, the highest rate under the Vth Republic.
Left in the lead
Despite this, the left comes far ahead with 47% of the vote against a Republican right which obtains only 35% of the vote. According to the projection in seats carried out by the CSA, Ipsos and Sofres institutes, the PS and its allies (Radical Left Party and Various Left including EE-LV) would obtain between 275 and 329 seats giving the hope of an absolute majority (289 seats) for the new President of the Republic, François Hollande. The UMP and its allies would obtain only 230 to 270 seats, which would place them, de facto, in the opposition. Like its leader, François Bayrou’s Modem collapsed and would only obtain 0 to 3 seats, tied with the Front National. Of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, 20 have already been allocated at the end of the first round, including 12 for the Socialist Party and 6 for the UMP.
24 new Ministers risked big in this first round, a defeat forcing them to relinquish their post. 6 of them are elected in the first round, such as the Prime Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Laurent Fabius, Bernard Cazeneuve, Delphine Batho, Victorin Lurel and Frédéric Cuvillier . All the others, except Marie-Arlette Carlotti (in charge of disabled people) are in favorable waivers. Their presence in government seems to have been an asset for these candidates.
A 1er surprise turn
Let’s start with the most popular of them. The 11th North constituency saw Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clash. While the pre-election polls announced them both in the lead, the leader of the Left Front found himself on the mat, ahead of the socialist candidate Philippe Kemel who won 21% of the vote. Far ahead, the president of the FN gathers 42% of the votes and therefore finds herself in a very favorable position as the 2nd tower.
Lawyer Gilbert Collard, FN candidate in the 2th constituency of Gard, confirms the push of the extreme right on the national level. Leading with 34.57% of the vote, he is ahead of the socialist Katy Guyot (32.87%) and the outgoing UMP deputy Etienne Mourrut (23.87%). A triangular is therefore looming, with the possibility of a withdrawal from the UMP candidate in favor of the “marinist” candidate. Case to be continued.
A tight triangular also looms in 3th constituency of Vaucluse where, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, niece of Marine, leads with 34.63% of the vote. She is well ahead of the outgoing UMP deputy Jean-Michel Ferrand (30.03%) and the socialist Catherine Arkilovitch. The return of an FN deputy to the National Assembly has never seemed so close.
One of the big surprises of this election also comes from the 2th constituency of Pyrénées-Atlantiques, in which François Bayrou, deputy since 1986, only comes in second with 23.63% of the vote. He therefore finds himself preceded by the candidate invested by the PS, Nathalie Chabanne (34.9%). The UMP candidate, Eric Saubatte is also invited to the second round, leading the leader of the Modem in a triangular which compromises his chances of re-election. On the side of the former Ministers from the UMP, they are three to find themselves in a complicated position as the 2nd tower.
This is particularly the case of Henri Guaino, parachuted in the 3th constituency of Yvelines, and who will face the dissident candidate of the UMP in a triangular. Even if he comes in front of the socialist candidate with 28.12% of the vote, the presence of Olivier Delaporte scatter the votes of the right. This could give the advantage to the socialist Fabienne Gelgon-Bilbault.
The former Minister of the Interior, Claude Guéant, also finds himself threatened by a triangular. Coming in first with 30.41% of the vote, he is closely followed by the dissident candidate, Thierry Solère, who intends to maintain his candidacy at all costs. Socialist Martine Even, who came third, has little to hope for in this right-wing bastion.
Nadine Morano also finds herself in an unfavorable waiver in the 5th district of Meurthe et Moselle. Arrived in second position behind the socialist candidate Dominique Potier she called the FN voters “To mobilize behind his candidacy”.
All is not rosy either on the socialist side, as evidenced by the difficult situation of Ségolène Royal in La Rochelle. In the lead in this first round with 32.03% of the vote, it is less than 4 points ahead of the dissident candidate Olivier Falorni, excluded from the Socialist Party. Some local elected officials, such as the former Minister of Agriculture Dominique Bussereau, do not hide that they are ready to support Falorni to bring down the former PS candidate for the presidential election. For Ségolène Royal, a defeat would prevent her from running for the perch.
Note, the elimination in the first round of Rama Yade in the 2th district of Hauts-de-Seine. The Radical Party candidate won only 13.87% of the vote and did not hold up in the second round. The failed comeback of the former secretary of state will perhaps make Nicolas Sarkozy, his former mentor, think twice about a possible return to the front of the stage.
Archive for monday 11 june 2012